Manganese prices struggle as structural demand builds

By June 20, 2025, manganese’s H1 gains had eroded and ore prices fell to US$4.21.

Eramet (EPA:ERA,OTCPL:ERMAF), a major producer, said it expected supply of manganese ore to increase in the second half of 2025, partly as key producers such as Australia returned volumes to market after earlier disruptions.

‘Ore supply should increase in H2, driven by the full return to the market of the leading Australian producer, partly offset by a potential downward revision of South African exports,’ the company notes. Demand for manganese alloys was expected to weaken in line with seasonality and softer global steel production.

Analysts cautioned that production expansions from major manganese producers could exacerbate oversupply. “Production increases … can only lead to oversupply, leading to a reduction in price,” one industry executive said.

Protectionist measures in key markets, including new EU quotas on ferroalloys, added uncertainty by potentially disrupting traditional trade flows and affecting alloy pricing dynamics.

Beyond the steel sector, structural shifts in consumption patterns emerged.

Although steelmaking still accounts for the lion’s share of manganese demand, interest in battery-related uses, particularly high-purity manganese for lithium-ion and next-generation EV chemistries, continued to gain attention.

“Our expectations of ongoing strengthening battery-grade demand and production in China in Q4 have been tempered somewhat by ongoing challenges within the nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) market,” Rob Searle, battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets, wrote in a November battery metals market update.

“While we expect a level of demand ramp-up in Q4, in the wider context of geopolitical challenges and a challenging Chinese market, the manganese demand uptick in the short term could be somewhat tempered,’ he added.

Changing battery chemistries

During a June Supply Chain (SC) Insights webinar, experts noted that manganese-rich cathode chemistries are increasingly drawing attention as automakers seek to cut costs and reduce exposure to cobalt and nickel.

Andy Leyland, founder of SC Insights, pointed out “manganese-rich chemistry is really offering a good solution … in terms of costs,” highlighting the commodity’s role in emerging battery designs.

While high-nickel NCM batteries remain dominant, industry players are exploring manganese as a lower-cost, high-performance alternative in Europe and North America, where supply chains remain heavily reliant on imports, particularly from China. OEMs are under pressure to secure raw materials directly, with vertical integration and direct sourcing emerging as key strategies to manage price volatility and supply security.

John Mulcahy, supply chain specialist at SC Insights, emphasized that sourcing upstream allows companies to negotiate better terms and reduce exposure to market fluctuations, even amid low pricing environments.

Manganese-rich chemistries are expected to expand steadily, complementing existing NCM and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, rather than replacing them entirely.

As Leyland noted, these materials are “definitely very high up on the focus from the demand side,” signaling growing adoption in the global push for cost-effective, low-cobalt battery solutions.

In March, Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTCPL:FRBMF) produced its first lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) EV batteries, becoming the first Australian company to achieve the feat. The move could position Firebird as a low-cost manganese cathode player, and highlights growth in the LMFP battery production segment.

Rising nationalism presents trade challenges

With the demand picture for manganese showing promise, analysts warn that export restrictions in Gabon could lead to a supply crunch before the decade is over. According to the US Geological Survey, 63 percent of US manganese imports come from Gabon. In June, the African nation announced plans to implement an export ban in January 2029.

Gabon’s renewed push to ban manganese ore exports from 2029 underscores Africa’s broader shift toward value addition, but it also risks tightening an already fragile global supply picture, a Project Blue market note reads.

As the world’s second largest exporter, Gabon shipped more than 7 million metric tons of high-grade ore in 2024, material that is critical to both ferroalloy production and emerging battery supply chains.

An export ban would hit Chinese buyers and European processors reliant on Gabonese feedstock, while adding pressure to the high-grade market at a time when Australia’s GEMCO mine is expected to wind down later this decade.

Although in-country processing — through ferroalloys or batteries — offers a path to capture more value locally, it would require significant investment and could shift, rather than eliminate, environmental and logistical costs.

For global markets, Gabon’s move signals rising resource nationalism in Africa and a potential structural squeeze on manganese supply heading into the next decade.

“However, without large-scale investments from China, a key battery producer, such ambitious plans of African governments risk remaining unrealised,” the Project Blue overview states.

“China has invested in Africa’s mineral industry (e.g. Ghana), securing access to the continent’s high-quality raw materials, while keeping production of high value-added products directly in China.”

In early 2025, Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN,OTCPL:EUMNF) scored a major boost when its Chvaletice manganese project was designated a “strategic project” under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act.

The move underscores the EU’s push to secure local supply of critical battery materials and could tighten the manganese market by prioritizing European production in the continent’s energy transition.

Oversupply vs. new manganese demand drivers

For 2026, analysts expect the manganese market to remain broadly balanced, but with pressures and opportunities on both the supply and demand fronts. However, longer-term fundamentals point to steady growth.

Global market forecasts indicate the manganese industry could expand modestly in value and volume by 2035, driven by ongoing demand from steel and increasing uptake in battery and clean-energy applications.

Some reports project market size rising through the decades, with Asia-Pacific demand remaining dominant and new opportunities emerging in the electrification and high-purity material segments.

Steel demand will continue to be the principal driver in 2026, with India’s expanding production offering a potential buffer against slower growth in China and Europe. Battery applications may not yet move the pricing needle dramatically, but their structural importance is increasing as automakers and cathode developers look to diversify away from nickel and cobalt reliance, a trend that could support manganese demand in the medium term.

“Looking ahead to the coming weeks and months, it is likely we won’t see too much further upward pressure on prices. Asian markets are heading towards the seasonal lull in demand and manufacturing activity in February as the Lunar New Year holidays begin,” Searle said in a January Fastmarkets report.

“At the same time, there are concerns around what China’s EV demand outlook looks like in Q1 2026, with changes to subsidy schemes potentially leading to softening consumption of battery-grade manganese.”

One Bullion (TSXV:OBUL) is a Toronto-based gold exploration company advancing a district-scale portfolio of gold assets in Botswana. The company holds approximately 8,004 sq km across three greenstone belt–hosted projects: Vumba, Maitengwe, and Kraaipan. Botswana is recognized as one of Africa’s most attractive mining jurisdictions, offering political stability, a transparent regulatory framework, and well-established mining infrastructure.

The company is focused on systematic, data-driven exploration. One Bullion has compiled extensive historical datasets, conducted modern geophysical surveys, and carried out substantial drilling—particularly at Vumba, where results have confirmed a continuous, structurally controlled gold system. The company plans to further advance its projects through targeted drilling and technical derisking, before exploring strategic partnerships or joint ventures with larger mining companies.

The company is led by CEO and President Adam Berk, supported by a management team and board with deep expertise in exploration, mine development, capital markets, and public company governance. The company prioritizes capital discipline and lean operations, directing the majority of funds raised into the ground to deliver results-oriented catalysts for shareholders.

Company Highlights

• Controls approximately 8,004 sq km across three gold-prospective greenstone belts in Botswana, one of Africa’s most stable and mining-friendly jurisdictions
• Portfolio includes Vumba, Maitengwe and Kraaipan, spanning early- to advanced-stage exploration with multiple near-term catalysts
• Vumba is the most advanced asset, with extensive historical work and drill results confirming a large, continuous gold system with expansion potential
• Kraaipan provides large-scale upside, with significant strike length along a prolific greenstone belt that hosts producing and past-producing mines nearby
• Backed by a data-rich exploration platform, including tens of thousands of historical assays and modern geophysical surveys
• Led by a management and board team with experience across mining, capital markets and company building

This One Bullion profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*

Click here to connect with One Bullion (TSXV:OBUL) to receive an Investor Presentation

Gold price chart, January 15 to 22, 2026.

The yellow metal’s latest rise adds to an ongoing historic run.

After starting 2025 around US$2,640, gold had risen to the US$3,200 level by April. It stayed within a fairly flat range until the end of August, when it launched higher once again, breaking US$4,300 in mid-October.

The price of gold took a breather following that move, even falling briefly below US$4,000; however, its retracement was neither as steep nor as long as many market watchers expected it to be.

Gold began gaining steam again in mid-November, and took off again in earnest at the end of 2025.

In 2026, precious metals have continued to benefit from geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Expectations of interest rate cuts after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends later this year have provided support too. Trump’s feud with the Fed over rates took an eyebrow-raising turn on January 9, when the US Department of Justice served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas targeting Powell with a criminal indictment.

Earlier this week, gold climbed higher as investors moved out of global stocks after Trump said over the weekend that European nations opposing his bid to acquire Greenland could face tariffs of up to 25 percent.

The nations targeted included France, Germany, the UK, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and Finland. The news prompted fears of a full-blown US-Europe trade war, a weaker US dollar, higher inflation and a worsening outlook for the global economy. There were even concerns that the conflict over Greenland could seriously weaken or dismantle the NATO alliance. Gold is traditionally used as a hedge against such risks.

Greenland’s key geographic position in the Arctic has long been coveted by the US as a necessary strategic asset in its geopolitical struggle with Russia and China. “China and Russia want Greenland, and there is not a thing that Denmark can do about it,” Trump wrote on January 17 on his social media platform Truth Social. “Only the United States of America, under PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP, can play in this game, and very successfully, at that!”

‘As soon as the probability of escalation increases, defensive capital tends to move preemptively, rather than waiting for tangible impacts to materialize in economic data. In this context, gold functions as a portfolio risk-balancing asset.’

European leaders responded with vows that they would not be blackmailed into allowing Trump to take Greenland, and said they were preparing counter measures to the president’s tariffs.

Perhaps the pressure worked, as Trump made a point of stating in his Wednesday (January 21) Davos speech: ‘I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.’

Silver is also attracting attention, pushing past the US$96 per ounce mark for the first time. Although it is valued as an investment metal, silver is key for technology such as solar panels.

Elsewhere in the precious metals space, platinum rose to record highs on Thursday, reaching US$2,612 per ounce. Palladium remains below its top price level, but is elevated above US$1,800 per ounce.

Investor Insight

Adjacent to Hudbay’s Copper Mountain mine (700 Mt reserve) and just 1.5 km from the mine’s deposits, Canada One’s Copper Dome project is in British Columbia’s Quesnel porphyry belt. With five-year drill permits secured and porphyry cluster-style mineralization targets currently being evaluated, the project is positioned for near-term catalysts. Committed to avoiding dilutive financing below $0.10, the company is self-funding to maintain the project until market conditions improve, aligning management with shareholders. Year-round road access, grid power and proximity to Vancouver reduce costs and accelerate timelines. Historical results show high-grade copper with gold and silver credits, and modern four-acid digestion assays are expected to capture stronger grades than legacy methods.

Overview

Canada One Mining (TSXV:CONE, OTC:COMCF, FSE:AU31) is an emerging exploration company focused on one of Canada’s most prolific critical mineral belts, the Quesnel porphyry belt. The flagship Copper Dome project, adjacent to the producing Copper Mountain mine, is a brownfield porphyry copper style system with excellent discovery potential. The proximity to Copper Mountain, a 45,000 t/day operation with reserves of 702 million tons (Mt) at 0.24 percent copper, 0.09 grams per ton (g/t) gold, and 0.72 g/t silver, provides both geological credibility and infrastructure advantages.

The company’s technical team believes the porphyry-style mineralization at Copper Mountain extends to the Copper Dome property, supported by alteration patterns, historical drilling and sampling that have already identified multiple copper-gold anomalies on the property.

Backed by an experienced management team and advisory board that includes proven mine builders and corporate developers, Canada One is advancing its assets with a disciplined, results-driven approach. The combination of tier-one jurisdictions and district-scale geology provides investors with a potential for asymmetric upside in an environment of growing global copper demand.

Company Highlights

• Flagship Copper Project in Tier-1 Jurisdiction: 12,800 ha Copper Dome land package, adjacent to Hudbay’s Copper Mountain mine, one of Canada’s most prominent copper operations.
• Discovery Thesis: Porphyry cluster-style deposit potential; Copper Mountain deposit analogs average ~150 to 200 Mt.
• Logistics Advantage: Year-round access, no camp/helicopters; 3 to 3.5 hrs from Vancouver; pine-beetle-thinned cover aids access.
• Technical Uplift: Transitioning to four-acid digestion (industry standard) vs. the historical three-acid will, on average, return materially high metal values especially where minerals are more resistant to dissolution.
• Near-term Catalysts: Five-year drill permits in place; upcoming geophysics, geochemistry and drill programs across multiple porphyry copper/gold zones.
• Multiple Assets in Canada: In addition to Copper Dome, Canada One’s other exploration assets include the historical small-scale, past-producing Goldrop property and the Zeus gold project.
• Valuation Upside: Market cap just below C$3 million provides significant leverage to discovery and exploration success.
• Capital Strategy: Management will not finance below $0.10; interim self-funding to minimize dilution.
• Experienced Leadership: Management team is supported by resource veterans such as Dave Anthony, head of the company’s advisory board, past COO of Barrick Africa and current CEO of Assante Gold Corporation (TSX:ASE) with a $1.7 billion market capitalization.

Key Project

Copper Dome Project

The flagship Copper Dome project is a 12,800-hectare, 100-percent-owned land package adjacent to the south of Hudbay Minerals’ Copper Mountain mine, about 1.5 km away from the mine’s deposits. Located just 18 km south of Princeton, BC and within a three-hour drive from Vancouver, Copper Dome benefits from year-round road access, grid power, water supply and local services including lodging in Princeton, requiring no camp or helicopters. The project lies within the lower portion of the Quesnel porphyry belt, one of Canada’s most prolific porphyry copper belts. With a fully permitted, five-year drill program in place, Copper Dome provides significant opportunities for near-term exploration and game-changing catalysts.

Copper Dome hosts at least two classic alkalic copper porphyry style systems, exhibiting strong geological similarities to Copper Mountain, where deposits average ~150 to 200 Mt. Copper Dome aims to test drill for mineralization of comparable scale. NE-trending structural controls, alteration halos and mineralization styles are directly analogous. Historic drilling shows a high intercept hit rate, and the maiden drill program will prioritize long intervals over isolated mineralized hits. While historic work used three-acid digestion, current work will use four-acid to better capture total copper, gold and silver returns.

Exploration zones at Copper Dome include:

• Boundary Zone: A 1 km x 2 km high-priority target defined by MMI geochemistry, returning copper values up to 40,000 parts per billion. Anomalies in this zone are of similar footprint to Copper Mountain’s Pit 1 and Pit 2 deposits. Infill MMI surveys, drone magnetics and induced polarization (IP) are planned to refine drill targets.
• South Zone: Geochemical and IP surveys suggest a buried copper-gold porphyry style system surrounded by pyritization. Copper and gold anomalies coincide with geophysical signatures, reinforcing its potential as a priority porphyry target.
• Other Targets: Friday Creek, Combination Creek, Haul Road and Orb Zone each show historical drilling or geophysical signatures consistent with porphyry-style systems. The northern border of Copper Dome lies just 1.5 km from Copper Mountain’s pits.

Given that Copper Mountain’s porphyry deposits occur in clusters, Canada One believes Copper Dome could potentially host cluster-style mineralization of similar scale to Copper Mountain (where deposits range between 150 to 200 Mt).

Key Management

Peter D. Berdusco – CEO, Interim CFO and President

Peter Berdusco brings over 20 years of executive experience in natural resources, corporate development and finance. He has led multiple public companies through reverse takeovers, acquisitions and listings, with projects spanning Africa, South America, the US and Canada. His expertise lies in structuring deals, capital raising and steering junior exploration companies through growth phases.

Dave Anthony – Head of Advisory Board

Dave Anthony brings 40+ years of mine project development and operations experience. He served as COO of African Barrick Gold, has worked across Canada, Africa, Ecuador, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile and Argentina, and has designed, delivered, and operated both open-pit and underground mines. He was COO of Cardinal Resources, which was acquired by Shandong Gold for AU$565 million, and is currently CEO of Asante Gold Corporation (TSXV:ASE), with a market capitalization of ~C$1.7 billion (as of Oct 2025).

Peter Holbek – Head Technical Advisor

Peter Holbek is a founding member of Copper Mountain Mining, whose Copper Mountain property is contiguous with the company’s Copper Dome project. He served as vice-president, exploration at Copper Mountain from 2006 to 2022, leading programs across discovery, resource definition and mine development. With 40+ years of experience in geology, mineral exploration, resource estimation and project execution, he has directed exploration that led to the discovery and/or development of copper-gold porphyry deposits. He has also authored numerous peer-reviewed papers on a range of deposit types, contributing practical insight and scholarly depth to the field.

Edward Rochette – Acquisition

Edward Rochette is the former senior vice-president of Ivanhoe Mining, with 25+ years’ experience negotiating and acquiring projects in more than 35 countries. He led or was responsible for the acquisitions of Monywa Copper, Bong Mieu gold mine, Bakyrchik gold mine and the Miwah gold project. He also consolidated and reopened the Cripple Creek mining district, now owned by Newmont and host to a ~13 Moz gold reserve. He currently serves as a consultant to Robert Friedland, founder and executive co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines.

Dean Bertram – Exploration

A geologist with more than 35 years of global exploration experience, Dean Bertram currently also serves as VP exploration at Asante Gold. He has led exploration teams across West Africa and Australia and now oversees Canada One’s geology programs. His experience in porphyry and orogenic gold systems is instrumental in guiding exploration at Copper Dome.

David Mark – Geoscientist

David Mark has over 50 years of experience in geophysics and mineral exploration across North America, South America, Europe and Asia. He is recognized for his work in IP, EM and MMI surveys and operates Geotronics Consulting. A University of British Columbia-trained geophysicist, he provides technical leadership on geophysics for Canada One’s exploration programs.

Vanadium market to see structural change?

As 2025 progressed, the vanadium market continue to grapple with weakness as steel production demand struggled to absorb available supply and the broader metals complex remained in the doldrums.

Vanadium pentoxide prices stayed under pressure in most regions, with figures from the second quarter showing US prices near US$9,584, and Chinese prices around US$8,655, reflecting tepid buying activity and ongoing oversupply, even as emerging applications such as VRFBs sustained pockets of interest.

As mentioned, a key factor has been sluggish steel sector demand. Globally, crude steel production has weakened, particularly in China — historically the largest vanadium consumer — slowing vanadium’s traditional core market as rebar and structural steel consumption softened amid broader economic headwinds.

Although new Chinese rebar standards introduced earlier in 2025 mandate higher vanadium intensity in steel, anticipated increases in consumption have only partially materialized, leaving producers competing for limited contracts and putting downward pressure on average ferrovanadium and vanadium pentoxide prices.

At the same time, market participants reported that producers were cutting output and tightening supply in response to persistent low pricing. Several companies in China and the west curtailed production or deferred capital projects, indicating that margins were strained and cost discipline was becoming an industry imperative.

Global vanadium production has been declining since 2021, when the US Geological Survey reported total global output of 105,000 metric tons; that’s compared to 2024’s 100,000 metric tons.

Emerging vanadium demand from energy storage

Despite headwinds, structural changes in vanadium demand were evident in H2 2025.

VRFBs continued to gain momentum as more utility‑scale projects were announced and commissioned. The technology’s appeal lies in its scalability, long cycle life and safety profile compared to conventional lithium‑ion systems; installations in China, Japan and North America point to a slowly growing pipeline of demand outside steel.

Industry analysts have noted that vanadium demand from VRFBs could nearly triple by 2040 as long‑duration storage becomes a more integral part of renewable power grids, even if these applications currently represent a small fraction of total consumption. In China alone, installations of large‑scale VRFB systems were projected to consume tens of thousands of metric tons of vanadium pentoxide equivalent in 2025, offsetting some weakness in steel alloying use.

This bifurcation — weak traditional demand versus nascent battery demand — typified H2, producing a market where prices remained subdued, but underlying interest in new applications suggested a shift in fundamentals.

All eyes on Australia’s vanadium potential

Although US Geological Survey data shows Australia doesn’t currently produce vanadium, the nation holds the largest recorded vanadium reserves at more than 8.5 million metric tons.

Looking to tap this potential, the country has focused its attention on the industrial metal.

In January 2025, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTCPL:ATVVF) received environmental approval from Western Australia for the Gabanintha vanadium project. The approval, granted by Minister for Environment Reece Whitby under section 45 of the Environmental Protection Act 1986 (WA), cleared the way for construction and production.

Shortly afterwards, the company’s namesake Australian Vanadium project, located in Western Australia’s Murchison province, earned a green energy major project designation.

The Queensland government has also invested in expanding refinement and processing capacity. Last May, construction began at Queensland’s first resources common user facility at the Cleveland Bay Industrial Park in Townsville.

The facility is designed to support the development, extraction and production of critical minerals, enabling the creation of mineral samples at scale and serving as a testing hub for commercializing production processes.

The government has identified vanadium as the initial focus, highlighting its key role in renewable energy applications.

In November, Western Australia launched a AU$150 million vanadium battery energy storage system project, aiming to make the state a leader in renewable energy and energy storage.

The 50 megawatt/500 megawatt-hour flow battery will use locally sourced and processed vanadium, and is expected to be the largest of its kind in Australia, supporting advanced manufacturing and a domestic supply chain.

Growing energy storage demand meets tightening supply

Looking ahead, analysts forecast that vanadium dynamics will begin to tilt in favor of tighter supply and strengthened pricing, though the timing and pace remain contingent on several variables.

A combination of reduced output and rising consumption — particularly from VRFBs — is expected to push the market toward a deficit by late 2026, encouraging a gradual recovery in vanadium prices.

Central to that shift is the energy transition. Demand for vanadium in long‑duration energy storage is projected to rise sharply as utilities and grid operators seek cost‑effective solutions to buffer renewables and stabilize electricity systems.

The vanadium market’s long‑term promise is underpinned by projections that VRFB deployment could grow at double‑digit rates, even as the bulk of demand remains tied to steel alloying.

On the supply side, a cautionary mood among producers — reflected in delayed project developments and tighter output discipline — may limit new material flowing onto the market in 2026.

With prices remaining below historical averages, many potential expansions are unbankable in the current price environment, meaning that new supply additions are likely to be limited absent a sustained price uptick.

“Vanadium market prices are likely to rise from late 2026, supported by tightening supply and growing demand from VRFBs. With weak prices in 2024 and 2025, driven by sluggish steel demand, vanadium producers have curbed output,” a CRU report published this past December notes.

Analysts at CRU project a late-year rebound, but caution that demand could triple by 2040 far outpacing production.

“Meanwhile VRFB demand is accelerating, evidenced by robust vanadium electrolyte project pipeline,” the firm’s report continues. “Rising demand will quickly run into depressed production, where prices will need to increase to support higher utilisation rates in mid-to late 2026.”