Central banks supporting gold price

Gold’s price gains through 2025 and into early 2026 have been driven by several factors. One of the most impactful has been ongoing purchases by central banks around the globe.

According to the World Gold Council’s latest gold demand trends report, central banks bought a total of 863 metric tons of the precious metal last year. While the amount falls short of the more than 1,000 metric tons purchased in each of the past three years, it remains well above historical averages.

Both the World Gold Council and the VRIC panelists believe that central bank buying of gold will remain elevated in 2026, providing critical support for the yellow metal’s price.

Behind these movements is a desire to diversify foreign reserves away from US-dollar-denominated assets such as treasuries. Once considered a stable and reliable investment for central banks, high deficit spending and trillions in debt have dulled the luster of these instruments over the past two decades.

Adding to a deterioration in confidence are US actions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“Since 2014, central banks have been net selling US treasuries and net stacking gold, which became exponential when the US dollar was weaponized against Russia,’ Piepenburg said.

‘Weaponizing a neutral reserve asset was a big no-no in terms of respect, trust and admiration for an already overly issued and indebted US treasury, and by proxy, US dollar,’ he added.

However, Piepenburg was clear that he doesn’t see this accumulation of gold by central banks as a move away from the US dollar, but more as a means to prepare for a repricing of the dollar.

He also believes there will be greater usage of gold as a net settlement asset.

For his part, Garofalo said that the US debt-to-GDP ratio over the past 50 years has climbed to 350 percent, up from 100 percent in the 1970s. It has created a tricky situation for the US Federal Reserve, which must walk a fine line between how high it can raise interest rates without triggering a significant currency reset. Overall, US debt of over US$34 trillion, combined with trillions in annual deficit spending, is eroding central banks’ confidence in holding US debt.

Garofalo went on to explain that gold isn’t a commodity; its value isn’t driven by supply and demand fundamentals.

“It’s a monetary instrument, and monetary instruments stay relative to each other based on relative interest rates. So it’s that lack of confidence that’s really driving capital out of sovereign debt into central banks by Tether, by individuals, into gold as a monetary instrument,” he said.

Stablecoin issuers pursue gold

The panelists also pointed to interest in gold from stablecoin issuers.

For example, Tether now holds 16 metric tons of gold in reserves, worth over US$2.5 billion.

“Issuers of these stablecoins give citizens their electronic dollar, the issuers then take that dollar to buy US treasuries — good for Uncle Sam — they then arbitrage the yield on those treasuries for themselves and take a profit. The key thing to look at with Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL), Tether or JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is that they’re taking the profits from the stablecoin and they’re buying gold. That’s the great irony,” Piepenburg said.

He explained that stablecoins were introduced to support the US dollar, but creators have since added new products backed by gold, which is fundamentally more stable than fiat currencies.

Overall, Piepenburg and Garofalo agreed that the crypto market’s entry into gold is a positive sign and will catalyze consolidation in the sector’s business side, while also making it more accessible to investors.

“Having another player, another pool of capital that traditionally has not been in the space, is part of the same phenomenon that’s driving generalists for the first time in many decades back into our sector,” said Garofalo.

Gold’s long-term drivers intact

The panel made several key points that should be important to investors.

With gold’s historic run, some investors are worried that they missed the boat and now it’s too expensive.

Cambone asked Garofalo about this issue, noting that investors need to learn to focus more on gold’s role as a stable store of value and recognize the erosion of fiat currencies.

“Every fiat currency ever created has ultimately failed, and the US dollar will too. It’s like that saying about bankruptcy, it happens gradually and then suddenly,’ Garofalo said.

‘That’s what’s going to happen with the US dollar — that erosion of trust will be settled.’

Although the panelists agreed that the gold bull market will end at some point, none believe that will happen soon. They noted that the drivers of the current market show no signs of abating.

US foreign and trade policy has emphasized traditional western trade alliances and has pushed Russia, China and the rest of the BRICS nations to distance themselves from the US dollar.

This is in addition to a looming debt crisis in several major economies, especially in the US.

Is it time for gold juniors to shine?

It’s not to say that the group was advocating jumping directly on the bandwagon — they also agreed that investors could expect a significant pullback in gold, an event that occurred just days after VRIC ended.

However, they stressed the importance and safety of holding gold-linked assets during the current cycle.

This could be in the form of physical gold or exchange-traded products. They also noted that, due to gold’s price run, the junior exploration sector has seen a resurgence.

Garofalo said juniors have spent years severely undercapitalized. “Gold reserves in the ground have declined 40 percent since 2012,” he said, adding, “We can’t turn on supply to meet the increased gold price. All we can do is mine lower-grade material that otherwise would have been wasted on a lower gold price environment.”

His sentiment was echoed by Still, who sees a wave of mergers and acquisitions coming as industry majors look to fill pipelines. “If you’re a major producer, you’re trying to find gold; it might take you five or 10 years to find it. You’re going to spend millions to do so. Or do you go buy it from a junior explorer or developer?” he said.

Still explained that on a per-ounce basis, the cost to buy a company that’s put in the exploration and development work is likely cheaper than conducting the exploration themselves.

Gold price forecasts for 2026 and beyond

With various options available to investors seeking exposure to gold, the discussion turned to price forecasts.

Garofalo was blunt when he stated US$7,000, while Piepenburg was slightly more nuanced.

“I think we’re only halfway through an eight year cycle in gold, so you could see US$7,000, US$8,000, but that’s notwithstanding the unforeseeable legislative or other black swans,’ he said.

‘Based on fundamentals, gold’s direction, secular, is north,” he said.

1. Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (NASDAQ:AIQ)

Assets under management: US$7.97 billion

The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF is passively managed, tracking the Indxx Artificial Intelligence & Big Data Index. The Global X fund, which was established in May 2018, has an expense ratio of 0.68 percent.

‘AIQ is passively managed to invest in developed market companies that are involved in the use of artificial intelligence to analyze big data, whether for their own operations, as a service to other companies, or through the production of related hardware,’ according to ETF.com.

The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF’s 87 holdings include Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU).

2. Defiance Quantum ETF (NASDAQ:QTUM)

Assets under management: US$3.67 billion

The Defiance Quantum ETF launched in September 2018. It tracks an index composed of 84 companies that derive at least half of their annual revenues from quantum computing and machine learning technology development activities.

The fund has the lowest expense ratio of the five AI funds on this list at 0.4 percent.

Some of the ETF’s top holdings include Quantum Emotion (TSX:QNC), Micron Technology and MKS (NASDAQ:MKSI).

3. Dan IVES Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (ARCA:IVES)

Assets under management: US$1.04 billion

The newest addition to this list, the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF launched on June 4, 2025, as Wedbush Fund’s inaugural ETF. The ETF’s holdings are based on the research of Dan Ives, Wedbush’s Global Head of Technology Research, and on the IVES AI 30 list, which is updated on a quarterly basis. It has an expense ratio of 0.75 percent.

The Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF has 32 holdings comprising mostly large-cap tech stocks based in North America. Its top holdings include Micron Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA).

4. Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (ARCA:CHAT)

Assets under management: US$1.036 billion

The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF launched on May 13, 2023, and focuses on companies that will benefit from the growth of generative AI. Companies must derive 50 percent of their revenue from generative AI or tech to qualify for its portfolio.

This AI ETF is actively managed and does not track an index. It has an expense ratio of 0.75 percent.

The ETF has 49 holdings, with 98 percent being large-cap companies. Its top holdings include Alphabet, NVIDIA and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and it offers exposure to North American and Asian tech firms.

5. Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF (ARCA:IGPT)

Assets under management: US$715.8 million

The last AI ETF on this list is the Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF. It is the longest running compared to the other ETFs on this list, having launched in June 2005. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.58 percent.

It is based on the STOXX World AC NexGen Software Development Index and tracks the performance of companies that derive a direct revenue from technologies or products that contribute to future software development.

The Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF’s 100 holdings include Micron Technology, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).

1. ‘No realer thing than critical minerals’ — Vance

‘And as much as we talk about the modern economy, the digital economy, the high-tech economy, the President said something that was very, very important, and I think should inform a lot of how we think about future growth, which is that as much as data centers and technology and all of these incredible things that we’re all working on matter, fundamentally you still have an economy that runs on real things. And there is no realer thing than oil — and I would add to that there’s no realer thing than critical minerals.’

2. ‘We will establish reference prices for critical minerals’ — Vance

‘So, this morning, the Trump Administration is proposing a concrete mechanism to return the global critical minerals market to a healthier, more competitive state — a preferential trade zone for critical minerals, protected from external disruptions through enforceable price floors. We will establish reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production, pricing that reflects real-world, fair-market value.

‘And for members of the preferential zone, these reference prices will operate as a floor, maintained through adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity. We want to eliminate that problem of people flooding into our markets with cheap critical minerals to undercut our domestic manufacturers because we know, of course, that as soon as they’ve undercut our domestic makers, they — the domestic markers — they’d leave the market and the people who undercut them then jack up the price to a completely unfair level. We’re going to fix that problem.’

3. ‘We … outsourced our economic security’ — Rubio

‘The United States used to produce its own critical minerals and derivative products like rare earth magnets. Back in 1949, miners in Mountain Pass, California discovered one of the world’s richest mineral deposits. By 1952, the United States, we were mining rare earths there, and that discovery sparked a revolution.

‘American scientists and engineers, alongside innovators from many of the countries that are here today, rushed to discover new applications for these minerals and, with these new technologies, ushered in the jet age, we ushered in the space age, we ushered in the computer age.

‘And then we became blinded, blinded by the potential of the technologies those metals enabled, but we neglected their importance. Mining is less glamorous than building computers. It’s less glamorous than building cars or airplanes. But building computers and cars and airplanes is less glamorous than designing them.

‘As we embraced what was new and glamorous, we outsourced what seemed old and unfashionable. We allowed, for example, Mountain Pass — and with it, most of America’s critical mineral industry — to wither and to die so that we could focus on manufacturing. Then we outsourced the manufacturing.

‘And I know this is a story I’m telling, but it’s a story many of the advanced economies represented here today understand well. We outsourced the manufacturing so we could focus on designing these goods. And then one day we woke up and we realized we had outsourced our economic security and our very future. We were at the mercy of whoever controlled supply chains for these minerals. So my hope is that we are gathered here today as the first but important step to rectifying this mistake, to bring together our collective talent for innovation, when our advantage over rivals — where our advantage over rivals has only grown, and to apply it to bringing back manufacturing and reopening mines here in the United States, but also in all the partner nations represented here today.’

4. ‘Diversity … is what makes us resilient’ — Horii

‘Japan strongly believes that FORGE will become an important venue and a vehicle for us to focus on supply chain diversification and ensure policy coordination. Japan stands ready to actively contribute to discussions to further deepen collaboration with partners and to ensure the effective implementation of this initiative.

‘So how should we move forward from here? On the supply side, diversification is essential. Diversity as opposed to concentration is what makes us resilient. This has to be one of the — our major guiding principles.’

5. ‘Four key initiatives’ — Copley

‘So, four key initiatives — we’re investing, we’re stockpiling, we’re going to protect our mining companies, and we’re fixing our mining ecosystem — because this industry is so important to our national development, as I know it is to your countries as well. But most importantly, under President Trump’s leadership, we are no longer standing around admiring the problem. We’re not spending our time writing 200-page book reports about how important critical minerals are. We have a plan, and we’re focused on project execution — getting deals done, getting companies their permits, stockpiling minerals, and hopefully moving forward with all of you, our international partners, to protect our mining companies and to rebuild global mining in a fair and balanced way.’